How to read it
The score answers one question for one athlete at one school: how likely is a meaningfully bigger role there than the athlete has now? A score of 70% at one program and 35% at another means the first is about twice as likely to offer a larger role, judged by what happened to similar athletes who transferred.
It starts from the athlete's own role. A bench player and a starter can see very different scores at the same school, because a bigger role means something different for each of them.
Read it together with predicted minutes per game. The score says how likely a step up is; the minutes estimate and its range say how big that step might be.
An example
Illustrative example with made-up numbers: a guard who played 11 minutes a game compares two programs. At a mid-major losing two guards, her Success Probability Score℠ is 68%. At a high-major that returns its whole rotation, it is 29%. The second school may still be the right choice for other reasons, but it is the bigger bet on playing time.
Common questions
Is a high Success Probability Score℠ a guarantee of minutes?
No. It is a probability built from real transfer outcomes. Coaches decide minutes, and injuries, development and roster changes can move any outcome.
Why is my score different at every school?
Each score belongs to one destination. The roster at your position, the level of competition and the program's situation all change how likely a bigger role is.
Where can I see my Success Probability Score℠?
Athletes see their own scores after building a profile on DepthChartIQ. Public program pages show program facts, not scores for individual athletes.
Which athletes get a score today?
Scores cover NCAA Division I men's and women's basketball destinations. Other levels and sports show an explicit gap instead of an invented number.
Current predictive coverage
Predictive support currently covers NCAA Division I men's basketball and women's basketball. Football and other sports are interest-only.
Related information
Review the coverage boundary. Return to the full glossary for other defined terms.