How to read it
The estimate is for next season, at one specific school, for one athlete. It always comes with a range, and the range is part of the answer: most real outcomes land somewhere inside it, not exactly on the single number.
Ranges are wider when a situation is less certain, and they are often lopsided, because transfer outcomes are lopsided. Some athletes gain far more minutes than expected; others lose more.
The estimate starts from the athlete's current role. Players who already play big minutes and players coming off the bench face very different odds when they move.
An example
Illustrative example with made-up numbers: a wing who averaged 18 minutes sees 21 predicted minutes at one school, with a range of 14 to 27. That reads as a likely similar or slightly larger role, with a real chance of fewer minutes and a real chance of a starter's minutes.
Common questions
Why show a range instead of one number?
Because one number would claim more certainty than anyone has. The range shows where most outcomes fall for situations like yours.
Can I play more than my predicted minutes?
Yes. The estimate is neither a cap nor a promise. Development, injuries and coaching decisions move real outcomes in both directions.
Do players who already start usually gain minutes when they transfer?
Often not. Players who already play big minutes have less room to grow, and many play less after a move, while bench players more often gain. The estimate accounts for where you start.
Which athletes get predicted minutes?
Athletes considering NCAA Division I men's or women's basketball destinations. Other levels and sports show an explicit gap instead of an estimate.
Current predictive coverage
Predictive support currently covers NCAA Division I men's basketball and women's basketball. Football and other sports are interest-only.
Related information
Review the coverage boundary. Return to the full glossary for other defined terms.